US midterm elections: What are the early results to look out for?

The US midterm elections on Tuesday will determine which of the political parties in the United States controls the two houses of congress in Washington for the next two years.

Although president Joe Biden’s name is not on any ballot, the outcome of the elections will have very significant implications for the president’s agenda, both domestically and internationally, for the remainder of his term in office.

In the elections all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs as well as 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. In addition 36 out of 50 states will elect governors.

Most polls in the eastern part of the country will close about 7pm local time (midnight in Ireland) and the first results should start to come in soon afterwards.

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There are four time zones across the continental United States, so results will continue to roll in through the night.

However, Mr Biden warned last week that it could take some days for the final outcome to be known.

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Although polling day is Tuesday, many states operate early voting arrangements. By last weekend well over 30 million had already cast their ballot.

The president said that many states will not start counting these votes until the polls close on Tuesday.

“That means, in some cases, we won’t know the winner of the election for a few days — until after a few days after the election. It takes time to count all legitimate ballots in a legal and orderly manner. "

And in the state of Georgia – which could be pivotal to the overall fate of the Senate – under local rules there will be a run-off next month if no candidate secures more than 50 per cent of the vote this week.

This means potentially the final results of the Senate election may not be known for weeks.

How things stand

President Biden’s Democratic party control the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate.

However, the Democrats’ hold over both the houses of congress is very slim.

The Senate is divided 50/50 and the casting vote of vice-president Kamala Harris is needed to break the tie for key issues.

In the House of Representatives, a net gain of five seats would see the opposition Republicans take control.

How things are looking

Historically, the party holding the White House faces significant challenges in the first midterm elections. Most recently Barack Obama and Donald Trump lost control of the House of Representatives in their first midterm elections, in 2010 and 2018 respectively.

The Democrats had hoped to shape the elections around the issue of abortion after the US Supreme Court eliminated the federal constitutional right to a termination last summer.

However in recent weeks this issue has faded somewhat and voters appear most concerned about inflation – running at over eight per cent – and crime. Democrats have been hammered on both these issues by their opponents across the country in recent weeks.

What the polls say

While all House of Representative seats are up for election, most are in areas that are solidly either Democrat or republican. Due in part to the gerrymandering of constituencies, only a minority – perhaps about 80 - are truly competitive.

An ABC poll on Sunday showed the Republicans with a narrow lead over Democrats when voters were asked which party candidate they preferred in their area.

However, there are more Democrat seats deemed to be competitive than those held by Republicans.

All the indications are that the Republicans will take back control of the House of Representatives, the only question being by how many seats. However, some Democrat strategists contend the polls may be wrong, or partisan or that the large numbers voting early may prove beneficial to their side. It remains to be seen if any of these arguments turn out to be correct.

In the Senate Republicans need a net gain of only one seat to take control of the chamber.

There are, however, a number of states where the contests appear to be statistically tied – in the margin of error of most polls.

[ US midterm elections: Republicans have slight lead over Democrats, poll shows ]

Republicans are confident that they will win two or three seats to take control of the Senate.

Democrats have said things look tight but the party will hold on and could even pick up a seat or two.

Polls have tightened over recent weeks and contests that appeared to be leaning towards the Democrats have swung back to being competitive once again.

In New York, for example, long considered a Democrat stronghold, serving governor Kathy Hochul is facing a far tougher re-election bid than anticipated. All the big Democratic guns including president Joe Biden and Bill and Hillary Clinton have been out canvassing in New York in recent days.

Early signs to watch out for

Results should come in first in areas along the east coast.

An early indicator could come in New Hampshire where Democrat senator Maggie Hassan is competing with a retired army general Don Bolduc, a champion of the contention that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.

Hassan appeared to be ahead a few weeks back but the contest has narrowed in the polls locally. If Hassan loses it could signal that it may be a long night (or even a long week) for Democrat Senate candidates.

The polls close in New Hampshire at 7pm local time, midnight in Ireland.

If there is a Republican red wave building, the Senate contest in Colorado – an increasingly Democratic state in recent years – may be one to watch for.

Incumbent Colorado Democratic senator Michael Bennet has been ahead of moderate, pro-choice, Trump-sceptic Republican Joe O’Dea in the polls. However, if the Republicans are really on a march, there could be a surprise here.

Similarly in Washington state on the west coast, Republicans believe they could have a sniff of a chance of their candidate Tiffany Smiley, a nurse, beating serving Democratic senator Patty Murray.

Colorado conducts much of its election by mail but polls close there at 7pm local time (2am in Ireland) and in Washington state at 8pm (4am in Ireland)

In the House of Representatives the outcome of a number of contests in Virginia could be a portent of things to come later across the country.

Three Democratic seats, held by Elaine Luria – a member of the committee investigating the January 6th attack on the US Capitol - Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton could be vulnerable.

The polls close in Virginia at 7pm locally – midnight in Ireland

Democratic hopes

Ohio has been learning more towards the Republicans in recent years. However long-time Democratic congressman Tim Ryan has waged a strong campaign – largely without much backing from the party establishment – and is within striking distance of JD Vance, who is running for the Republicans. Vance is the author of Hillbilly Elegy and is strongly supported by Trump.

A Ryan victory here would be tremendous boost for the Democrats.

Polls close in Ohio at 7.30 pm locally – 12.30 am in Ireland

[ US midterms: Five races to watch ]